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CaptainAdam
Lieutenant Junior Grade
Joined: Jul 03, 2004
Member#: 7155
Posts: 57
Location: Budapest, Hungary
    
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 Posted:
Sat Jul 10, 2004 5:38 pm Post subject: The oil problem |
 
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Well, since we had a little discussion around it already...
Here are the facts (i was fortunate enough to get some info on this matter)...
Back in 1976 the Ghwar Fields were estimated to have 61 billion barrels of oil that could be recovered. The crisis was that was 60 % of the TOTAL production of world oil. Well 30 years later it turns out,that the Saudis have already pumped away 55 billion barrels since the Gwar field opened in 1950. They are in the fourth generation of oil production and recovery. The oil fields no longer have any pressure to move the oil to the well heads. They pump 70 million gallons of seawater daily to move the oil to wells. That 5 billion barrels translates to about 5000 days if we consider todays consumption (15 million barrels per day). Taking into account China, India, and other growing nations, the fact that consumption is constantly rising), it bottoms at around 1200 days maybe, or five years.
The rest of the world will not be able to maintain oil production for more than a couple years after that.
So even if we are optimistic , the deadline is about 9-10 years from now (probably less).
When the saltwater hits the well heads it's all over.
The russians have been extracting from their remaining fields for 50 years now, and the reserve estimates are now federation state secrets....what do you think that means? 
There are promises to extract inert oil...promises, and they will stay that way....salt water reacts with crude oil, resulting in a soapy goo like thing.
In Texas they do that (they used freshwater)...for every 100 thousand barrels of oil they have to pump out 10 MILLION barrels of water.
But in the middle east they use sea water (that 50 years that somebody talked about would be true if they would not be using sea water now).....
So folks, no matter what they might say, we have oil reserves for about another decade (again that is a VERY optimistic deadline)...
I was kinda suprised too, believe me...
Any thoughts?
Adam
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 Legolas
Commander
Joined: Aug 08, 2002
Member#: 178
Posts: 857
Location: Drunkest state in USA
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Posted:
Sat Jul 10, 2004 10:33 pm Post subject: |
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For one I would take any information I hear about oil with a grain of salt...
Two; I am not worried about it... You see when humans are forced into a situation we pull out all the stops and solve problems... When we are truly low on oil, (which is very important to countries like the U.S.) Countries like the U.S. Will rapidly produce Ideas and solutions to the oil problem... The world will not just stop because we run out of oil... The world will go on, heck I am more than sure they already have back ups... possibly back ups that will be great for the earth... |
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CaptainAdam
Lieutenant Junior Grade
Joined: Jul 03, 2004
Member#: 7155
Posts: 57
Location: Budapest, Hungary
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Posted:
Sun Jul 11, 2004 4:27 am Post subject: |
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Ofcourse life will not stop.....
This is not a bad thing, its good that we are running out of oil. Btw, these are facts, not some greeny imaginations.
Fuel cells will probably replace gasoline. Gas stations will be replaced by hydrogen filling stations.
Btw, don't think that just because something is important the US will come up with a solution. Things not always go the way they should.
Sometimes we act too late, other times, too soon.
Remember...HUMANS sit "up there".
Adam
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Hurr78
Commander
Joined: Feb 12, 2004
Member#: 5061
Posts: 739
Location: Toronto
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Posted:
Sun Jul 11, 2004 7:38 am Post subject: |
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Where did you get your information? I'd be curious to find out, because your figures don't even come close to matching up with any I've ever seen.
Now, Lego's right... you should take just about anything you see about oil production with a grain of salt.
But with that in mind, here's the generally agreed upon facts on world oil production and consumption. You can find this stuff all over the internet if you're interested. Just do a Google search.
The global consumption of oil is not 15 million barrels per day. It was already 77 million barrels per day in 2001 and is likely about 80 million per day right now. That's about 29.2 billion barrels per year.
The global oil reserve that is economically viable for extraction is currently about 1.2 trillion barrels. And that's the low estimate. As for the currently unrecoverable stuff, there's 1.6 trillion barrels of in-situ bitumen oil in Canada's Athabaskan tar sands alone. They forecast being able to develop the technology in the near future to get at 315 billion barrels of that. At the rate that they are currently extracting it (which will obviously accelerate quite a lot), it would take almost 2473 years to get it all out.
Even when we just consider the currently available and economically viable stuff, we still have at least 25 years of supply, allowing for a healthy increase in demand.
Will we run out of oil? Of course. Will it happen within the next decade? Absolutely not. We'll gradually see a shift away from oil consumption as we are forced to rely on more expensive sources of oil.
So don't sell your Exxon shares quite yet |
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CaptainAdam
Lieutenant Junior Grade
Joined: Jul 03, 2004
Member#: 7155
Posts: 57
Location: Budapest, Hungary
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Posted:
Sun Jul 11, 2004 11:37 am Post subject: |
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But don't buy any either .
Right, i remember that 77 Mb/day now (i looked up stuff a couple months ago). Thx for the correction.
15 Mb/day was released by the white house, and probably just for US consumption. Though its under rated, the US consumes about 20 Mb/day.
Looking for more info, one can find that they estimate about 830 billion barrels (2003 data) left in major oil fields, that can be economically extracted. That would mean oil for another 30 years with todays consumpton...
Now for the fun part...
Tar sand will never be extraced, forget it.
That is the smaller problem.
THe bigger one is that most reserves are estimates, and simuilations, not measurements. They are soon correcting a lot of numbers, couple of days. That 830 billion barrels is probably badly false.
We don't really know how much is actually left...so reserves might last for another 20 years or only for another 5 years. The Saudis ofcourse didn't want us to know that they are running low...
On the net, and in the media, they ,ofcourse, talk about large numbers, and plenty of time..not true, you can be sure that what is the popular belief is false, almost an universal rule nowdays .
I still say, that we have about 10 years worth of oil left. But even 30 years would not be really enough to completely convert to other alternatives...unless we do it really fast. Will we?
Adam
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Hurr78
Commander
Joined: Feb 12, 2004
Member#: 5061
Posts: 739
Location: Toronto
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Posted:
Sun Jul 11, 2004 3:15 pm Post subject: |
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| CaptainAdam wrote: |
Tar sand will never be extraced, forget it. |
They're already extracting it. They took out 330,325,000 barrels from the Alberta tar sands last year, a production figure that has been rising substantially over the past few years.
| CaptainAdam wrote: |
| I still say, that we have about 10 years worth of oil left. But even 30 years would not be really enough to completely convert to other alternatives...unless we do it really fast. Will we? |
And I still think that you're exaggerating. It's not that I don't think it's a major problem. But I don't see the evidence for what you're claiming. I'd be happy to take a look at any info you have if you happen to have a link.
As for converting to alternatives, there are plans in the major population corridor of Canada to develop a hydrogen fuel infrastructure over the next few years. I wouldn't worry about the switch from oil to alternative resources. It will happen quite quickly when it needs to. The tech is ready, we're just waiting for the political will to materialize. |
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Obi-son
Captain
Joined: Sep 10, 2002
Member#: 211
Posts: 1897
Location: Winchester,Va, USA
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Posted:
Sun Jul 11, 2004 7:13 pm Post subject: |
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just remember when the oil light comes on thats bad
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If you have it you don't need it. If you need it you don't have it. You need it to get it and you certainly need it to get more of it. Which means you don't have it to begin with people just know. |
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Cocles
Commodore
Joined: Mar 06, 2002
Member#: 15
Posts: 2587
Location: Los Angeles, CA
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Posted:
Sun Jul 11, 2004 7:38 pm Post subject: |
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CaptainAdam, post your sources or drop it. |
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Legolas
Commander
Joined: Aug 08, 2002
Member#: 178
Posts: 857
Location: Drunkest state in USA
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Posted:
Sun Jul 11, 2004 8:11 pm Post subject: |
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Hey Adam... Do you work for some green party? Do you work for the oil companies??? Just curious...
I guess I vote for people to worry about things like this and to come up with solutions. I also have enough faith in my country and other leading countries such as japan to come up with the solutions at an affordable price.
And to hurr, I love how you have this noob on the ropes. |
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Caray
Lieutenant Commander
Joined: Oct 17, 2002
Member#: 243
Posts: 408
Location: France
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Posted:
Mon Jul 12, 2004 3:41 am Post subject: |
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Just to put in my two cents worth, do not forget countries such as China where the consumption is rising steadily, same for many third world countries clawing up to second world, and who do not see why they should tighten their belt. Whatever we do to reduce our own use like less thirsty cars, solar, wind power, even nuclear, they are more than taking up the slack. And the estimates for the life expectancy of the oil fields change wildly with only a 1% difference in the growth estimates of China economy. Imagine 200 000 millions people switching from bicycles to car... and that's only car consumption.
And not to point fingers, but the US is still the biggest gaz guzzler in the world and seen from the outside not ready to make an effort to reduce its consumption. True, false ?
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My reality cheque bounced |
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GrooveMerchant
Lieutenant
Joined: Jul 29, 2003
Member#: 2617
Posts: 221
Location: Oregon
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Posted:
Mon Jul 12, 2004 4:17 am Post subject: |
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Lol, this thread made me smile  I'm with you Lego, why worry about such things? Plus if you're gonna worry, don't forget other great things that may await us such as.......
terrorism, nuclear war, alien invasion, the shifting of the North Atlantic Current, the reversal of the earth's magnetic field, another ice age, nearby supernovas, the explosion of the sun, the moon leaving its orbit, volcanoes, tsunamis, earthquakes, virus pandemic, robots, and greenhouse effect.
there, that should keep you worry-warts bust for quite a while  |
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CaptainAdam
Lieutenant Junior Grade
Joined: Jul 03, 2004
Member#: 7155
Posts: 57
Location: Budapest, Hungary
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Posted:
Mon Jul 12, 2004 4:50 am Post subject: |
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I'm not worried..i don't work for a "green party", nor for an oil company, do a google search you will find that 75 Mb/day and the claimed (nobody knows) 830 billion barrels, the rest of the stuff is from an ex-DOE person, who got this info from the Hudson institute, the switch WILL be gradual, and oil will never really run out, but less and less will be extracted, while demand increases fast, thus prices will rise (they already are).
Europe has a plan to disassemble the oil based industry in about 50 years from now, and to switch to a hydrogen based infrastructure.
The US has the luxury, that it can get oil from multiple sources, and can alter the political situation, even with force, to get oil.
The EU cannot do that, 50% of oil here is imported. That will increase to 70 % in a couple decades.
Caray is very correct about China, and India, and about the rest of the 3rd world.
While we constantly have to correct our reserve ESTIMATES, the rapid growth of demand is a fact.
I didn't say anybody should be worried about this. Yes we will switch, but maybe not that smoothly.
Adam
Ps.: About all those terrible things...
terrorism, nuclear war, alien invasion, the shifting of the North Atlantic Current, the reversal of the earth's magnetic field, another ice age, nearby supernovas, the explosion of the sun, the moon leaving its orbit, volcanoes, tsunamis, earthquakes, virus pandemic, robots, and greenhouse effect...
Lemme see, alien invasion, explosion of the sun (lol), the moon leaving it's orbit, robots (what? the terminator scheme?)...alien invasion has the highest probability here..which is quite low .
Nuclear war...well i doubt, they have much more effective weapons.
Terrorism..okay that exists
Shifting of the N.A.C., another possibility...
Reversal of the magnetic field...has no major effect, and will not happen in another thousand years probably...
Nearby supernovas...doubt it...
Another ice age...not in a thousand years.
Volcanoes, tsunamis, earthquakes, virus pandemic, all part of daily life here on this planet.
Robots...i would not worry about robots....
The greenhouse effect..might be a big bogus. Even if it exists, with a switch to a closed loop carbon cycle , or to hyodrogen would probably put an end to it in a hundred years.
Thats all
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 Tron
Lieutenant Commander
Joined: Dec 13, 2003
Member#: 4034
Posts: 319
Location: Belgium
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Posted:
Mon Jul 12, 2004 5:57 am Post subject: |
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CA, I think you're a little bit to enthusiastic here. Maybe I'm mistaking, but it's starting to sound like you're just trying to show off your (non)knowledge here.
With your excessive answer to Groove's joke and all. Yes? No?
I've had a university grade course on Earth Science and Reading everything you posted here made me blush. Google is not a good source for this information. |
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Caray
Lieutenant Commander
Joined: Oct 17, 2002
Member#: 243
Posts: 408
Location: France
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Posted:
Mon Jul 12, 2004 6:24 am Post subject: |
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| GrooveMerchant wrote: |
terrorism, nuclear war, alien invasion, the shifting of the North Atlantic Current, the reversal of the earth's magnetic field, another ice age, nearby supernovas, the explosion of the sun, the moon leaving its orbit, volcanoes, tsunamis, earthquakes, virus pandemic, robots, and greenhouse effect.
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attack of the Wild Ants of the West, McDonald waistband syndrome, the singing of MR on prime time, Oprah as president, end the rule of fishes so that Humans have full access to the seas, Elvis Presley coming back, cough your lungs out for the good of the chemical companies, a spoonful of castor oil every morning... 
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My reality cheque bounced |
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CaptainAdam
Lieutenant Junior Grade
Joined: Jul 03, 2004
Member#: 7155
Posts: 57
Location: Budapest, Hungary
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Posted:
Mon Jul 12, 2004 6:35 am Post subject: |
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Relax Tron , i was joking back...mostly. I answered more seriously to real things (few)... and that reply of yours was a bit "strong"...
I didn't even do a search on those things...Did i get it all wrong?
Btw, how about...the re-election of G.W. Bush?
Or 24 hours worth of tele-tubbies.... 
Aren't we getting off topic here?
Adam |
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